Prediction markets provide continuous, tradeable probabilities for elections, policy decisions, sanctions, weather and other discrete events. We translate these probabilities into portfolio terms: which exposures are sensitive to a given outcome, at what magnitude, and through which first and second order channels.

Event markets and the assets they reference reprice at different speeds. We measure lead-lag relationships between prediction markets and equities, rates, FX and crypto, quantify their statistical significance and capacity, and deliver the resulting signals in machine-readable form.

We operate market-making programmes in event contracts and other niche venues on our own infrastructure. We agree quoting parameters, inventory limits and risk controls in advance, and report performance against them.

We profile trading systems end to end, from market data ingestion to order acknowledgement, identify the components that dominate the latency budget, and implement the corrections. Where colocation is justified, we manage selection and deployment.

Certain datasets are not commercially available: venue-native records, on-chain history, regulatory filings, discontinued feeds. We source, reconstruct and normalise this material, and operate high-uptime collectors when the client needs live coverage.

We build and maintain exchange and vendor connectivity, including FIX, REST and WebSocket integrations, with monitoring, reconnection and failover. We also automate operational workflows, using LLM components where testing proves them reliable.

We support empirical market research on strategy behaviour, inefficiencies, microstructure and market manipulation. In most collaborations we contribute the datasets, assembled from material with no usable published form, and the infrastructure to process them at scale.

For firms entering prediction markets or other niche venues, we deliver the integration together with an operating assessment of the venue: fee structure, microstructure, API behaviour and known failure modes.

We review a strategy or trading operation before an allocation or acquisition: we verify backtests and data integrity, assess the infrastructure, and deliver a written report of findings with supporting evidence.